A new report finds that marijuana legalization is not associated with a significant increase in traffic accidents.
A report by the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA) and the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) analyzed the impact of cannabis legalization on vehicle crash experience in Canada and the United States.
Previous study suggest that marijuana decriminalization is associated with more drivers operating under the influence of the drug. As countries around the world adopt similar policies, more research is needed around the effects of cannabis on driving and road safety.
The study examined 2016-2019 data from Canada and the United States, including official reports on private vehicle crashes and losses, fatal accidents and weather factors.
It did not find any statistically significant effect of decriminalization on car crash mortality, frequency of insurance claims, or average cost per claim, especially over the long run.
that report, Assessing the Effect of Marijuana Legalization on Vehicle Accident Experience The trend and seasonality of traffic accidents in Canada did not change significantly after the legal status change, according to insurance statistics.
Likewise, the estimated statewide impact of decriminalization in the United States does not reveal any consistent, significant results to support the conclusion that decriminalization leads to an increase in road accidents or deaths.
Temporal patterns of human activity (eg, yearly, weekly, and daily cycles) and severe weather are said to be more predictive of vehicle accident experience than decriminalization.
The report’s author, Dr. Vyacheslav Lyubchich, an associate research professor at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (UMCES), wrote: “The review of the literature shows that while cannabis use affects driving behaviour, this behavior is not always riskier; for example, impaired drivers are reported to be slower and follow longer.
“Observational studies of road crashes report mixed results, often failing to detect significant effects, especially in the long run.”
Overcoming the limitations of previous studies
The study overcomes the limitations and shortcomings of earlier studies on the impact of marijuana decriminalization by utilizing novel data-driven approaches and technological advances in machine learning.
For each data source, statistical and machine learning models were selected to account for different sources of variability.
Dr. Lyubchich said: “The methods used in this study include improved statistical models, machine learning and other data science techniques. These models use high-resolution weather data to explain the influence of weather factors.”
this Canadian Society of Actuaries (CIA) is the qualification and governing body for the actuarial profession in Canada and deals with Measurement and management of risk and uncertainty.
