Successfully betting on bowl games may be more difficult than ever. We always have to hold back player motivation, coaching changes and other variables. But now, the sport has added transfer portals and draft status warnings to the equation.
“It wasn’t until a few years ago that I heard a bowl game described as an ‘exhibition,'” professional bettor Jay Romano told ESPN. “Bowl games have always been considered playoff games. But now more and more people are saying these games don’t mean much, and that definitely affects the point spread.”
Personally, I give up all bowls now. Over the next few weeks, when the news keeps surfacing and the line changes dramatically, I can’t lock down the pick right now. Still, I’m willing to bet on individual matches. It just requires a unique set of skills.
“It’s a cross between the NFL preseason and the NBA,” SuperBook oddsmaker and Las Vegas veteran Ed Salmons told ESPN, alluding to the importance of tracking players’ unexpected non-injury absences. “If you find out first, you’ve got a pretty good bet.” That’s because bowl season is more volatile than the regular season, thanks to swings of up to 10 points.
Twitter is an important tool used by nearly every handicap and oddsmaker, stalking national writers and beat reporters who randomly post valuable tidbits. This includes various observations and practice quotes that can help gauge motivation and other data points. Also, don’t be afraid to watch the clips on your local TV station’s website. Much like the NFL preseason, coaches are less transparent about some information.
“It’s a complex and hard job,” Jason Scott, vice president of trading at BetMGM, told ESPN. “However, traditionally we do see good results with a lot of dogs winning.”
Ultimately, it’s a soft market. This can be a good thing for bettors, but it can also be a negative if you prioritize false information and the market moves against you. My advice is to proceed with caution and don’t be afraid to wait for in-game betting. You’ll get to know who’s sitting on the sidelines, and after a few possessions you’ll theoretically get a better feel for each team’s mentality and preparation.
favorite drama
Fenway Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Louisville Cardinals (-2, 39)
In short, this game is bowl season. With numerous players absent, both teams will turn to interim head coaches and backup quarterbacks. Louisville quarterback Brock Dorman looked underwhelming in limited minutes in place of Malik Cunningham, and I doubt that’s improving. Cincy has more key players available and I like the Bearcats to win this game.
Pick: Cincinnati +2
Las Vegas Bowl: Florida Gators vs. No. 14 Oregon Beavers (-8.5, 53)
The Gators are the big underdogs, although under normal circumstances this game would likely be a pick. That’s because Florida State won’t have at least 20 scholarship players, including star quarterback Anthony Richardson. Florida State will turn to QB Jack Miller III, who is making his first career start. Meanwhile, all signs point to Oregon State having the full roster and eagerness to beat its SEC opponent in Game 10, a level the school has only reached twice. Maybe I’m late, but I’ll still be rooting for the Beavers, and I hope they lean on their heavy offense. However, of all my games this is the least confident due to the high spreads.
Pick: Oregon – 8.5
Jimmy Kimmel Los Angeles Bowl: Washington State Cougars vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (-3.5, 53)
I think this game is very good for Fresno State and its passing offense, which has been the weak point of Wazzu’s defense all season. Additionally, the Cougars lost two new jobs for their coordinators, so in this game, the receiving coach will pass the ball and the offensive line coach will run the runs. I can’t imagine this being so effective. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, have won eight straight and are looking to field quarterback Jack Heiner for the win and their school’s 10th win.
Pick: Fresno State -3.5
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New Mexico Cup: SMU Mustangs (-4, 64) vs. BYU Cougars
A game involving the Broncos and Cougars might need the Wildcats. That’s because BYU could be relegated to quarterback. Starter Jalen Hall is questionable and the rest of the depth chart is hampered by injuries and transfer portals. Both defenses are terrible, but SMU will at least have regular quarterback Tanner Mordecai, though he won’t be without his top perimeter. However, that shouldn’t matter for this horrible BYU defense, which ranks 116th in efficiency.
Option: SMU-4
Independence Bowl: Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs. Houston Cougars (-7, 57.5)
Honestly, I think it’s a coin toss. The Ragin’ Cajuns should have home-court advantage in Shreveport and bring a solid defense to a Houston offense that has been on a rollercoaster ride all season. For example, Houston was blown out by 13 points in their last game. Plus, the Cougars rank 100th in defensive efficiency, so Louisiana should be okay offensively.
Pick: Louisiana +7
