It’s been a long journey, but on Monday, we will finally wrap up the 2022 college football season. The biggest game of the season takes center stage as we crown the national champion at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.That’s how the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs, the defending national champions, will tell the Cinderella story of the 2022 season in the College Football Playoff National Championship, and the No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs
Georgia will be in its third national title game in the past six seasons and should have been here. This is one of the preseason favorites to win the SEC, become a CFP and possibly win a national title. TCU, on the other hand, shouldn’t be here. The Frogs went 5-7 last year and fired Gary Patterson, the most successful coach in program history. Preseason expectations weren’t high for this team either; Big 12 media pick Frogs finish seventh under first-year coach Sonny Dykes, who accepted from rival SMU across Dallas-Fort Worth Mets got the job.
Instead, TCU went undefeated into the Big 12 championship game and was drafted CFP despite barely losing to Kansas State in that game. TCU then found itself not just a touchdown loser to No. 2 Michigan State in the Fiesta Bowl semifinals, but defeated the Wolverines 51-45 anyway to continue its Cinderella story. Now, the Frogs have another chance to shock the world.
Will TCU be the biggest surprise champion of the modern era? Will Georgia restore order and become the first program to win back-to-back national titles since Alabama in 2010 and 2011? We’ll find out on Monday night. Right now, all we can do is speculate, so let’s speculate wildly.
National Championships: (1) Georgia vs. (3) TCU
featured games | Georgia Bulldogs vs. TCU Horned Frogs
spread: I can’t lie. Betting on TCU is terrible. I’ve told myself several times this season, “This is it. This is the end of this amazing journey. This is when we have to let the frogs fade.” I’ve been wrong every time, and trust me, I’m not one of those looking for a reason One of those who wrote off TCU all season. I’m happy with the Frogs going into the season, and after their hot start, I’ve only gotten better with them.
but no one sees this future. TCU messing things up in the Big 12? certainly. But that’s about as far as it goes, right? After a while, I told myself the Frogs could win the conference, but lose a game or two. So, now I’m a little shaken. From a pure power rating standpoint, Georgia is the smarter game for anything under two touchdowns, but TCU has struggled all season. I’m not ready to go against them right now.
Still, there are concerns about the TCU matchup, which will largely depend on the status of Georgia tight end Darnell Washington. While NFL scouts are salivating over Washington’s potential as a pass-catcher based on his size and athleticism, he’s already a huge blocker in the run game. He’s essentially an extra tackle in Georgia’s rushing offense. The 3-3-5 defensive formation deployed by TCU is more susceptible to teams running two tight end sets. If Georgia has Washington and Brock Bowles available on Monday, that’s going to be a complication for Joe Gillespie and the TCU defense. Michigan struggled after losing Luke Schoomaker early in the Fiesta Bowl as it was already shorthanded in crunch time.
On the other hand, Georgia’s defense is nowhere near as dominant as last year’s team. This is especially true when chasing a QB. TCU’s Max Duggan is usually his worst enemy when it comes to sacks, but we’ve seen Georgia’s secondary struggles with a good passing offense this season. TCU may not have Ohio State’s overall receiving depth, but Quentin Johnston, Derius Davis and Tye Barber are a formidable trio. I don’t know if TCU’s defense is strong enough to win games, but offensively, the Frogs should be able to put up enough points to keep things to a minimum. Option: TCU +12.5
all: We’ve been told for years, “Defense wins championships.” That’s not true — at least not to the level we’ve been led to believe. Having a great defense helps set you apart these days, but having an elite offense is the key to winning a championship. Just look at the national championship winners of the CFP era. While last year’s Georgia team was known for its world-class defense, it also ranked near or near the top in every meaningful offensive statistic. Alabama, Clemson and LSU also won it all with teams that had first-round picks at quarterback and wide receiver. Ohio State was relegated to third-string quarterback in 2014, but even Cardale Jones ended up in the NFL after being surrounded by NFL talent on offense.
Look again at the title race in the playoff era. Those eight championship games averaged 64.5 points, with only two totals below 60. One was Alabama’s 26-23 overtime win over Georgia in 2018, and the other was Georgia’s 33-18 win over Alabama last season. Yes, Georgia played both games, but that game could have scored more points if Crimson Tide wide receiver Jameson Williams hadn’t been injured last year.
If this game is a blowout, it will likely be lower than the overall score. We’ve seen Georgia jump to the lead and sit on the ball many times, but as I’ve said, I don’t think it’s going to be a blowout. It might not be as close as any of the semi-finals, but I don’t think any team will win by less than 31 points, which makes the game more attractive. Choice: Over 62.5
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